• Cost trends on Type C’s continue to be favorable overall. Occasional setbacks.
• Seeing expected cost uptick on initial Type A steps.
• We are 12 working days behind on C5 critical path.
• We will increase to 2 shifts on Station 1b next week.
• Type A cladding is late and may impact schedule.  Action: Larry follow up with supplier.
• Larry is looking for alternate EDM sources for Type B cladding and chill plates.
  

• Costs (Larry)
  
  • $50K to install
  • Awaiting bids for fixture parts. Assume $40K as a placeholder for now.  Also need clamps.
  • For discussion purposes, assume $100k total, and 10 weeks to procure and install.
    

Full implementation scenario   (Buy 3rd fixture and staff 2 shifts per day.)

• Benefit (Wayne)
  
  • 3.8 month reduction in the time to complete the balance of the coils, assuming the fixture were available from today and MCWF deliveries every 20 days. Assume operations not constrained by staff availability, parts and supplies, or equipment reliability.
    
• Risks
  
  • We would increase staff in effort to speed up the schedule, so we would start spending at a higher rate.  If predicted time savings did not materialize, the predicted savings would be less.   If the larger operation became less efficient instead of more efficient, it could end up costing money.
  • FY-07 schedule is already at risk due to only $1M contingency. Possibility of a continuing resolution adds to the uncertainty. If we add winding staff to speed up winding, other work would get delayed to FY-08, impacting the critical path. Thus, there is a risk that any cost and schedule benefit to the winding operation would come at the expense of the project as a whole, resulting in no net benefit or worse.
  • The accelerated scenario depends on the entire operation running on a precise schedule.  If not, there is a risk of work coming to a halt due to “gridlock” (can’t move a coil out of a station because of no place to go.)  The fact that coils go thru Stations 1A and 1B on both the front end and the back end means there is little forgiveness if things don’t go as planned. The autoclave is busy almost full time and is at risk of becoming a bottleneck.
    

Intermediate scenario  (Buy 3rd fixture, but don’t increase staff)

• Benefit
  
  • Provides and additional multi-purpose fixture for risk management flexibility to accommodate problems such as coil re-work, backup for fixture breakdowns, relieve gridlock.  Could add staff later if everything is going well.
  • At current staffing levels, we estimated it would only need to save 2 weeks on the schedule to pay for the fixture.  Action: Wayne estimate time savings. Assume new fixture available from Dec. 1
    

Conclusions

• Full scenario has high potential payoff, but high risk of not succeeding.
• Risks would be less if more BA were available in FY-07.
• Intermediate scenario may mitigate risks.  Even partial implementation may be beneficial, so staging may be an option.
• We will follow through on getting estimates for fixture and clamps.( Larry)
• We will try to quantify potential benefits of intermediate scenario (Wayne)
• If current assessment continues to hold up, go ahead with intermediate scenario as resources permit. Perhaps late August.