From: Ronald L. Strykowsky
Sent: Thursday, May 11, 2006 3:56 PM
To: Hutch Neilson; Wayne T. Reiersen
Subject: NCSX FY06 cost forecast for PPPL

Attachments: fy06CE r1.xls; ncsx ce printout.pdf

Hutch/Wayne, I just completed my current estimate for FY06 for the PPPL scope and based on my assessment we run the real risk of overrunning this year's PPPL funding by $14 to $214k (the range is a function of the anticipated rate reduction that Ed has quantified). The basis of this projection is as follows;
1) The current schedule with estimate increases were used as a start.
2) I performed a top down manpower rackup for the winding operation that was based on people rather than man-hour estimates by task.
3) I deferred the following scope from this year into next;
		PF design
		Cryostat design
		All work on the 2nd VVSA we wanted to start this year
		All work stops in the elect power systems AFTER the upcoming design rvw.
 

From a total project perspective the $175k transfered to ORNL would have them work on the interface hardware and start the coil services design AND still carryover approx $255k (which Jim Lyon says is the req'd GSO amount that keeps them going through a continuing resolution period). Therefore their $255k underrun plus our forecast overrun would still keep us within the box but is very tight. I believe we can defer all of the coil services and some of the interface design (detail h/w dwgs) into next year and save about $50 to $100k but we'd have to ask for some of the money back.

In summary I'll submit the forecast to Ed to support his lab wide rackup analysis but this is another near term problem we'll need to focus on for the balance of the year.

I should point out that due to DOE mandated accounting requirements we are not permitted to cost more than our budget. As such we'll need to look for additional scope to move into next year to provide us a better cushion.


Seed attached detail.

Ron